When/wrb they/ppss say/vb that/cs under/in no/at circumstances/nns would/md it/pps ever/rb be/be right/jj to/to ``/`` permit/vb ''/'' the/at termination/nn of/in the/at human/jj race/nn by/in human/jj action/nn ,/, because/cs there/ex could/md not/* possibly/rb be/be any/dti proportionate/jj grave/jj reason/nn to/to justify/vb such/abl a/at thing/nn ,/, they/ppss know/vb exactly/rb what/wdt they/ppss mean/vb ./.
Of/in course/nn ,/, in/in prudential/jj calculation/nn ,/, in/in balancing/vbg the/at good/nn directly/rb intended/vbn and/cc done/vbn against/in the/at evil/nn unintended/jj and/cc indirectly/rb done/vbn ,/, no/at greater/jjr precision/nn can/md be/be forthcoming/jj than/cs the/at subject/nn allows/vbz ./.
Yet/cc it/pps seems/vbz clear/jj that/cs there/ex can/md be/be no/at good/nn sufficiently/ql great/jj ,/, or/cc evil/nn repelled/vbn sufficiently/ql grave/jj ,/, to/to warrant/vb the/at destruction/nn of/in mankind/nn by/in man's/nn$ own/jj action/nn ./.


	I/ppss mean/vb ,/, however/rb ,/, that/cs the/at moral/jj theologian/nn knows/vbz what/wdt he/pps means/vbz by/in ``/`` permit/nn ''/'' ./.
He/pps is/bez not/* talking/vbg in/in the/at main/nn about/in probabilities/nns ,/, risks/nns and/cc danger/nn in/in general/jj ./.
He/pps is/bez talking/vbg about/in an/at action/nn which/wdt just/ql as/ql efficaciously/rb does/doz an/at evil/jj thing/nn (/( and/cc is/bez known/vbn certainly/rb and/cc unavoidably/rb to/to lead/vb to/in this/dt evil/jj result/nn )/) as/cs it/pps efficaciously/rb does/doz some/dti good/nn ./.
He/pps is/bez talking/vbg about/in double/jj effects/nns ,/, of/in which/wdt the/at specific/jj action/nn causes/vbz directly/rb the/at one/cd and/cc indirectly/rb the/at other/ap ,/, but/cc causes/vbz both/abx ;/. ;/.
of/in which/wdt one/cd is/bez deliberately/rb willed/vbn or/cc intended/vbn and/cc the/at other/ap not/* intended/vbn or/cc not/* directly/rb intended/vbn ,/, but/cc still/rb both/abx are/ber done/vbn ,/, while/cs the/at evil/jj effect/nn is/bez ,/, with/in equal/jj consciousness/nn on/in the/at part/nn of/in the/at agent/nn ,/, foreknown/jj to/to be/be among/in the/at consequences/nns ./.
This/dt is/bez what/wdt ,/, in/in a/at technical/jj sense/nn ,/, to/to ``/`` only/rb permit/vb ''/'' an/at evil/jj result/nn means/vbz ./.
It/pps means/vbz to/to do/do it/ppo and/cc to/to know/vb one/pn is/bez doing/vbg it/ppo ,/, but/cc as/cs only/rb a/at secondary/jj if/cs certain/jj effect/nn of/in the/at good/nn one/pn primarily/rb does/doz and/cc intends/vbz ./.
Of/in course/nn ,/, grave/jj guiltiness/nn may/md be/be imputed/vbn to/in the/at military/jj action/nn of/in any/dti nation/nn ,/, or/cc to/in the/at action/nn of/in any/dti leader/nn or/cc leaders/nns ,/, which/wdt for/in any/dti supposed/vbn good/nn ``/`` permits/vbz ''/'' ,/, in/in this/dt sense/nn ,/, the/at termination/nn of/in the/at human/jj race/nn by/in human/jj action/nn ./.
Certainly/rb ,/, in/in analyzing/vbg an/at action/nn which/wdt truly/rb faced/vbd such/jj alternatives/nns ,/, ``/`` it/pps is/bez never/rb possible/jj that/cs no/at world/nn would/md be/be preferable/jj to/in some/dti worlds/nns ,/, and/cc there/ex are/ber in/in truth/nn no/at circumstances/nns in/in which/wdt the/at destruction/nn of/in human/jj life/nn presents/vbz itself/ppl as/cs a/at reasonable/jj alternative/nn ''/'' ./.


	Naturally/rb ,/, where/wrb one/cd or/cc the/at other/ap of/in the/at effects/nns of/in an/at action/nn is/bez uncertain/jj ,/, this/dt has/hvz to/to be/be taken/vbn into/in account/nn ./.
Especially/rb is/bez this/dt true/jj when/wrb ,/, because/cs the/at good/jj effect/nn is/bez remote/jj and/cc speculative/jj while/cs the/at evil/nn is/bez certain/jj and/cc grave/jj ,/, the/at action/nn is/bez prohibited/vbn ./.
Presumably/rb ,/, if/cs the/at reverse/nn is/bez the/at case/nn and/cc the/at good/jj effect/nn is/bez more/ql certain/jj than/cs the/at evil/jj result/nn that/wps may/md be/be forthcoming/jj ,/, not/* only/rb must/md the/at good/nn and/cc the/at evil/nn be/be prudentially/rb weighed/vbn and/cc found/vbn proportionate/jj ,/, but/cc also/rb calculation/nn of/in the/at probabilities/nns and/cc of/in the/at degree/nn of/in certainty/nn or/cc uncertainty/nn in/in the/at good/jj or/cc evil/jj effect/nn must/md be/be taken/vbn into/in account/nn ./.
There/ex must/md not/* only/rb be/be greater/jjr good/nn than/cs evil/nn objectively/rb in/in view/nn ,/, but/cc also/rb greater/jjr probability/nn of/in actually/rb doing/vbg more/ap good/nn than/cs harm/nn ./.
If/cs an/at evil/nn which/wdt is/bez certain/jj and/cc extensive/jj and/cc immediate/jj may/md rarely/rb be/be compensated/vbn for/in by/in a/at problematic/jj ,/, speculative/jj ,/, future/jj good/nn ,/, by/in the/at same/ap token/nn not/* every/at present/jj ,/, certain/jj ,/, and/cc immediate/jj good/nn (/( or/cc lesser/jjr evil/nn )/) that/wps may/md have/hv to/to be/be done/vbn will/md be/be outweighed/vbn by/in a/at problematic/jj ,/, speculative/jj ,/, and/cc future/jj evil/nn ./.
Nevertheless/rb ,/, according/in to/in the/at traditional/jj theory/nn ,/, a/at man/nn begins/vbz in/in the/at midst/nn of/in action/nn and/cc he/pps analyzes/vbz its/pp$ nature/nn and/cc immediate/jj consequences/nns before/cs or/cc while/cs putting/vbg it/ppo forth/rb and/cc causing/vbg these/dts consequences/nns ./.
He/pps does/doz not/* expect/vb to/to be/be able/jj to/to trammel/vb up/rp all/abn the/at future/jj consequences/nns of/in his/pp$ action/nn ./.
Above/in all/abn ,/, he/pps does/doz not/* debate/vb mere/jj contingencies/nns ,/, and/cc therefore/rb ,/, if/cs these/dts are/ber possibly/rb dreadful/jj ,/, find/vb himself/ppl forced/vbn into/in inaction/nn ./.
He/pps does/doz what/wdt he/pps can/md and/cc may/md and/cc must/md ,/, without/in regarding/vbg himself/ppl as/cs lord/nn of/in the/at future/nn or/cc ,/, on/in the/at other/ap hand/nn ,/, as/cs covered/vbn with/in guilt/nn by/in accident/nn or/cc unforeseen/jj consequences/nns or/cc by/in results/nns he/pps did/dod not/* ``/`` permit/vb ''/'' in/in the/at sense/nn explained/vbn ./.
By/in contrast/nn ,/, a/at good/jj deal/nn of/in nuclear/jj pacifism/nn begins/vbz with/in the/at contingencies/nns and/cc the/at probabilities/nns ,/, and/cc not/* with/in the/at moral/jj nature/nn of/in the/at action/nn to/to be/be done/vbn ;/. ;/.
and/cc by/in deriving/vbg legitimate/jj decision/nn backward/rb from/in whatever/wdt may/md conceivably/rb or/cc possibly/rb or/cc probably/rb result/vb ,/, whether/cs by/in anyone's/pn$ doing/nn or/cc by/in accident/nn ,/, it/pps finds/vbz itself/ppl driven/vbn to/in inaction/nn ,/, to/in non-political/jj action/nn in/in politics/nn and/cc non-military/jj action/nn in/in military/jj affairs/nns ,/, and/cc to/in the/at not/* very/ql surprising/jj discovery/nn that/cs there/ex are/ber now/rb no/at distinctions/nns on/in which/wdt the/at defense/nn of/in justice/nn can/md possibly/rb be/be based/vbn ./.


	Mr./np Philip/np Toynbee/np writes/vbz ,/, for/in example/nn ,/, that/cs ``/`` in/in terms/nns of/in probability/nn it/pps is/bez surely/rb as/ql likely/jj as/cs not/* that/cs mutual/jj fear/nn will/md lead/vb to/in accidental/jj war/nn in/in the/at near/jj future/nn if/cs the/at present/jj situation/nn continues/vbz ./.
If/cs it/pps continues/vbz indefinitely/rb it/pps is/bez nearly/rb a/at statistical/jj certainty/nn that/cs a/at mistake/nn will/md be/be made/vbn and/cc that/cs the/at devastation/nn will/md begin/vb ''/'' ./.
Against/in such/abl a/at termination/nn of/in human/jj life/nn on/in earth/nn by/in human/jj action/nn ,/, he/pps then/rb proposes/vbz as/cs an/at alternative/nn that/cs we/ppss ``/`` negotiate/vb at/in once/rb with/in the/at Russians/nps and/cc get/vb the/at best/jjt terms/nns which/wdt are/ber available/jj ''/'' ,/, that/cs we/ppss deliberately/rb ``/`` negotiate/vb from/in comparative/jj weakness/nn ''/'' ./.
He/pps bravely/rb attempts/vbz to/to face/vb this/dt alternative/nn realistically/rb ,/, i.e./rb ,/, by/in considering/in the/at worst/jjt possible/jj outcome/nn ,/, namely/rb ,/, the/at total/jj domination/nn of/in the/at world/nn by/in Russia/np within/in a/at few/ap years/nns ./.
This/dt would/md be/be by/in far/rb the/at better/jjr choice/nn ,/, when/wrb ``/`` it/pps is/bez a/at question/nn of/in allowing/vbg the/at human/jj race/nn to/to survive/vb ,/, possibly/rb under/in the/at domination/nn of/in a/at regime/nn which/wdt most/ap of/in us/ppo detest/vb ,/, or/cc of/in allowing/vbg it/ppo to/to destroy/vb itself/ppl in/in appalling/jj and/cc prolonged/vbn anguish/nn ''/'' ./.
Nevertheless/rb ,/, the/at consequence/nn of/in the/at policy/nn proposed/vbn is/bez everywhere/rb subtly/ql qualified/vbn :/: it/pps is/bez ``/`` a/at possible/jj result/nn ,/, however/wql improbable/jj ''/'' ;/. ;/.
``/`` the/at worst/jjt ,/, and/cc least/ql probable/jj ''/'' result/nn ;/. ;/.
``/`` if/cs it/pps didn't/dod* prevail/vb mankind/nn would/md still/rb be/be given/vbn the/at opportunity/nn of/in prevailing/vbg ''/'' ;/. ;/.
for/cs ``/`` surely/rb anything/pn is/bez better/jjr than/cs a/at policy/nn which/wdt allows/vbz for/in the/at possibility/nn of/in nuclear/jj war/nn ''/'' ./.
If/cs we/ppss have/hv not/* thought/vbn and/cc made/vbn a/at decision/nn entirely/rb in/in these/dts terms/nns ,/, then/rb we/ppss need/vb to/to submit/vb ourselves/ppls to/in the/at following/vbg ``/`` simple/jj test/nn ''/'' :/: ``/`` Have/hv we/ppss decided/vbd how/wrb we/ppss are/ber to/to kill/vb the/at other/ap members/nns of/in our/pp$ household/nn in/in the/at event/nn of/in our/pp$ being/beg less/ql injured/vbn than/cs they/ppss are/ber ''/'' ?/. ?/.
Thus/rb ,/, moral/jj decision/nn must/md be/be entirely/rb deduced/vbn backward/rb from/in the/at likely/jj eventuality/nn ;/. ;/.
it/pps is/bez no/ql longer/rbr to/to be/be formulated/vbn in/in terms/nns of/in the/at nature/nn of/in present/jj action/nn itself/ppl ,/, its/pp$ intention/nn ,/, and/cc proximate/jj effect/nn or/cc the/at thing/nn to/to be/be done/vbn ./.


	Several/ap of/in the/at replies/nns to/in Mr./np Toynbee/np ,/, without/in conscious/jj resort/nn to/in the/at traditional/jj terminology/nn with/in regard/nn to/in the/at permission/nn of/in evil/nn ,/, succeed/vb in/in restoring/vbg the/at actual/jj context/nn in/in which/wdt present/jj moral/jj and/cc political/jj decisions/nns must/md be/be made/vbn ,/, by/in distinguishing/vbg between/in choosing/vbg a/at great/jj evil/nn and/cc choosing/vbg in/in danger/nn of/in this/dt evil/nn ./.
``/`` It/pps is/bez worse/jjr for/in a/at nation/nn to/to give/vb in/rp to/in evil/nn than/cs to/to run/vb the/at risk/nn of/in annihilation/nn ''/'' ./.
``/`` I/ppss am/bem consciously/rb prepared/vbn to/to run/vb the/at continued/vbn risk/nn of/in '/' race/nn suicide/nn by/in accident/nn '/' rather/in than/cs accept/vb the/at alternative/jj certainty/nn of/in race/nn slavery/nn by/in design/nn ./.
But/cc I/ppss can/md only/rb make/vb this/dt choice/nn because/cs I/ppss believe/vb that/cs the/at risk/nn need/md not/* increase/vb ,/, but/cc may/md be/be deliberately/rb reduced/vbn ''/'' (/( by/in precautions/nns against/in accidents/nns or/cc by/in limiting/vbg war/nn ?/. ?/.
)/) ``/`` Quoting/vbg Mr./np Kennan's/np$ phrase/nn that/cs anything/pn would/md be/be better/jjr than/cs a/at policy/nn which/wdt led/vbd inevitably/rb to/in nuclear/jj war/nn ,/, he/pps (/( Toynbee/np )/) says/vbz that/cs anything/pn is/bez better/jjr than/cs a/at policy/nn which/wdt allows/vbz for/in the/at possibility/nn of/in nuclear/jj war/nn ''/'' ./.
``/`` If/cs asked/vbn to/to choose/vb between/in a/at terrible/jj probability/nn and/cc a/at more/ql terrible/jj possibility/nn ,/, most/ap men/nns will/md choose/vb the/at latter/ap ''/'' ./.
``/`` If/cs Philip/np Toynbee/np is/bez claiming/vbg that/cs the/at choice/nn lies/vbz between/in capitulation/nn and/cc the/at risk/nn of/in nuclear/jj war/nn ,/, I/ppss think/vb he/pps is/bez right/jj ./.
I/ppss do/do not/* accept/vb that/cs the/at choice/nn is/bez between/in capitulation/nn and/cc the/at certainty/nn of/in nuclear/jj war/nn ''/'' ./.
Even/rb Professor/nn-tl Arnold/np Toynbee/np ,/, agreeing/vbg with/in his/pp$ son/nn ,/, does/doz so/rb in/in these/dts terms/nns :/: ``/`` Compared/vbn to/in continuing/vbg to/to incur/vb a/at constant/jj risk/nn of/in the/at destruction/nn of/in the/at human/jj race/nn ,/, all/abn other/ap evils/nns are/ber lesser/jjr evils/nns ./.
Let/vb us/ppo therefore/rb put/vb first/od things/nns first/rb ,/, and/cc make/vb sure/jj of/in preserving/vbg the/at human/jj race/nn at/in whatever/wdt the/at temporary/jj price/nn may/md be/be ''/'' ./.


	Mr./np Philip/np Toynbee/np affirms/vbz at/in one/cd point/nn that/cs if/cs he/pps shared/vbd the/at anticipations/nns of/in Orwell/np in/in Nineteen/cd-tl Eighty-Four/cd-tl ,/, if/cs he/pps believed/vbd Communism/nn-tl was/bedz not/* only/rb evil/jj but/cc ``/`` also/rb irredeemably/ql evil/jj ''/'' ,/, then/rb he/pps might/md ``/`` think/vb it/ppo right/jj to/to do/do anything/pn rather/in than/in to/to take/vb the/at risk/nn of/in a/at communist/nn world/nn ./.
Even/rb a/at nuclear/jj holocaust/nn is/bez a/at little/ql less/ql frightful/jj to/to contemplate/vb than/cs a/at race/nn of/in dehumanised/vbn humans/nns occupying/vbg the/at earth/nn until/in doomsday/nn ''/'' ./.
No/at political/jj order/nn or/cc economic/jj system/nn is/bez so/ql clearly/rb contrary/jj to/in nature/nn ./.
But/cc one/pn does/doz not/* have/hv to/to affirm/vb the/at existence/nn of/in an/at evil/jj order/nn irredeemable/jj in/in that/dt sense/nn ,/, or/cc a/at static/jj order/nn in/in which/wdt no/at changes/nns will/md take/vb place/nn in/in time/nn ,/, to/to be/be able/jj truthfully/rb to/to affirm/vb the/at following/vbg fact/nn :/: there/ex has/hvz never/rb been/ben justitia/fw-nn imprinted/vbn in/in social/jj institutions/nns and/cc social/jj relationships/nns except/in in/in the/at context/nn of/in some/dti pax-ordo/fw-nn preserved/vbn by/in clothed/vbn or/cc naked/jj force/nn ./.
On/in their/pp$ way/nn to/in the/at Heavenly/jj-tl City/nn-tl the/at children/nns of/in God/np make/vb use/nn of/in the/at pax-ordo/fw-nn of/in the/at earthly/jj city/nn and/cc acknowledge/vb their/pp$ share/nn in/in responsibility/nn for/in its/pp$ preservation/nn ./.
Not/* to/to repel/vb injury/nn and/cc uphold/vb and/cc improve/vb pax-ordo/fw-nn means/vbz not/* simply/rb to/to accept/vb the/at misshapen/jj order/nn and/cc injustice/nn that/wps challenges/vbz it/ppo at/in the/at moment/nn ,/, but/cc also/rb to/to start/vb down/in the/at steep/jj slope/nn along/in which/wdt justice/nn can/md find/vb no/at place/nn whereon/wrb to/to stand/vb ./.
Toynbee/np seems/vbz to/to think/vb that/cs there/ex is/bez some/dti other/ap way/nn to/to give/vb justice/nn social/jj embodiment/nn ./.
``/`` I/ppss would/md far/ql rather/rb die/vb after/in a/at Russian/jj occupation/nn of/in this/dt country/nn --/-- by/in some/dti deliberate/jj act/nn of/in refusal/nn --/-- than/cs die/vb uselessly/rb by/in atomisation/nn ''/'' ./.
Would/md such/abl an/at act/nn of/in refusal/nn be/be useful/jj ?/. ?/.
He/pps does/doz not/* mean/vb ,/, in/in fact/nn he/pps addresses/vbz himself/ppl specifically/rb to/to reject/vb the/at proposition/nn ,/, that/cs ``/`` if/cs we/ppss took/vbd the/at risk/nn of/in surrendering/vbg ,/, a/at new/jj generation/nn in/in Britain/np would/md soon/rb begin/vb to/to amass/vb its/pp$ strength/nn in/in secret/jj in/in order/nn to/to reverse/vb the/at consequences/nns of/in that/dt surrender/nn ''/'' ./.
He/pps wants/vbz to/to be/be ``/`` brutally/ql frank/jj and/cc say/vb that/cs these/dts rebellions/nns would/md be/be hopeless/jj --/-- far/ql ,/, far/ql more/ql hopeless/jj than/cs was/bedz the/at Hungarian/np revolution/nn of/in 1956/cd ''/'' ./.
This/dt is/bez not/* a/at project/nn for/in regaining/vbg the/at ground/nn for/in limited/vbn war/nn ,/, by/in creating/vbg a/at monopoly/nn in/in one/cd power/nn of/in the/at world's/nn$ arsenal/nn of/in unlimited/jj weapons/nns ./.
It/pps is/bez a/at proposal/nn that/cs justice/nn now/rb be/be served/vbn by/in means/nns other/ap than/in those/dts that/wps have/hv ever/rb preconditioned/vbn the/at search/nn for/in it/ppo ,/, or/cc preconditioned/vbn more/ql positive/jj means/nns for/in attaining/vbg it/ppo ,/, in/in the/at past/nn ./.
``/`` It/pps is/bez no/at good/jj recommending/vbg surrender/nn rather/in than/in nuclear/jj warfare/nn with/in the/at proviso/nn that/cs surrender/nn could/md be/be followed/vbn by/in the/at effective/jj military/jj resistance/nn by/in occupied/vbn peoples/nns ./.
Hope/nn for/in the/at future/nn would/md lie/vb in/in the/at natural/jj longing/nn of/in the/at human/jj race/nn for/in freedom/nn and/cc the/at right/nn to/to develop/vb ''/'' ./.
This/dt is/bez to/to surrender/vb in/in advance/nn to/in whatever/wdt attack/nn may/md yet/rb be/be mounted/vbn ,/, to/in the/at very/ql last/ap ;/. ;/.
it/pps is/bez to/to stride/vb along/in the/at steep/jj slope/nn downward/rb ./.
The/at only/ap contrary/jj action/nn ,/, in/in the/at future/nn as/cs in/in the/at past/nn ,/, runs/vbz the/at risk/nn of/in war/nn ;/. ;/.
and/cc ,/, now/rb and/cc in/in the/at future/nn unlike/in in/in the/at past/nn ,/, any/dti attempt/nn to/to repel/vb injury/nn and/cc to/to preserve/vb any/dti particular/jj civilized/vbn attainment/nn of/in mankind/nn or/cc its/pp$ provisional/jj justice/nn runs/vbz some/dti risk/nn of/in nuclear/jj warfare/nn and/cc the/at danger/nn that/cs an/at effect/nn of/in it/ppo will/md ,/, by/in human/jj action/nn ,/, render/vb this/dt planet/nn less/ql habitable/jj by/in the/at human/jj race/nn ./.
That/dt is/bez why/wrb it/pps is/bez so/ql very/ql important/jj that/cs ethical/jj analysis/nn keep/vb clear/jj the/at problem/nn of/in decision/nn as/in to/in ``/`` permitted/vbn ''/'' effects/nns ,/, and/cc not/* draw/vb back/rb in/in fright/nn from/in any/dti conceivable/jj contingency/nn or/cc suffer/vb paralysis/nn of/in action/nn before/in possibilities/nns or/cc probabilities/nns unrelated/jj ,/, or/cc not/* directly/rb morally/rb related/vbn ,/, to/in what/wdt we/ppss can/md and/cc may/md and/cc must/md do/do as/ql long/rb as/cs human/jj history/nn endures/vbz ./.


	Finally/rb ,/, just/rb as/cs no/at different/jj issues/nns are/ber posed/vbn for/in thoughtful/jj analysis/nn by/in the/at foreshortening/nn of/in time/nn that/wps may/md yet/rb pass/vb before/in the/at end/nn of/in human/jj life/nn on/in this/dt earth/nn ,/, but/cc only/rb stimulation/nn and/cc alarm/nn to/in the/at imagination/nn ,/, the/at same/ap thing/nn must/md be/be said/vbn in/in connection/nn with/in the/at question/nn of/in what/wdt we/ppss may/md perhaps/rb already/rb be/be doing/vbg ,/, by/in human/jj action/nn ,/, to/to accelerate/vb this/dt end/nn ./.
We/ppss should/md not/* allow/vb the/at image/nn of/in an/at immanent/jj end/nn brought/vbn about/rb indirectly/rb by/in our/pp$ own/jj action/nn in/in the/at continuing/vbg human/jj struggle/nn for/in a/at just/jj endurable/jj order/nn of/in existence/nn to/to blind/vb us/ppo to/in the/at fact/nn that/cs in/in some/dti measure/nn accelerating/vbg the/at end/nn of/in our/pp$ lease/nn may/md be/be one/cd consequence/nn among/in others/nns of/in many/ap other/ap of/in mankind's/nn$ thrusts/nns toward/in we/ppss know/vb not/* what/wdt future/nn ./.

